So the focus is now exclusively on Ohio and Texas. It's an odd political narrative. "Clinton must win Texas and Ohio." But everyone knows a simple Clinton win in either state will do little more than stretch out the ratings jump for Hardball a couple of weeks. Clinton can net no delegates in Texas without winning 65 percent or more of the votes. So she'll be even further behind in national delegates, and that means she'd need even bigger wins in Ohio and subsequent primaries to begin to catch up.
Nonetheless, that's where we are. Neither campaign is really motivated to talk about these facts. If Clinton is not giving up, Obama needs his supporters mobilized. He can't very well tell them it's over. Clinton needs something to tell her contributors. "I must win Texas" sounds pretty good, unless the prospective donor asks, "How big do you need to win Texas."
What's not getting talked about much is the real reason John McCain has stepped up his attacks on Obama. It has everything to do with the Democratic primary. McCain wants to drive independent voters in Texas and Ohio away from Obama. McCain doesn't want another Obama blow-out, especially when it means even more independent voters buy into Obama by voting for him in a primary. So he attacks.
This is probably more true of Ohio than Texas, since conventional belief is Texas electoral votes will probably go to the GOP nominee no matter how many independents vote for Obama. This conventional wisdom is looking a little threadbare, by the way. Texas is not out of the question for the Democrat in November.
I'll write more about this later. But there's been serious de-alignment in Texas, there's little left of the old liberal/conservative Democratic split. We've been down so long we love one another. The Democratic infrastructure here is being rebuilt with focus, discipline and commitment. We've won virtually every seriously contested district-level race over the last two years, including a recent state House special election in a 60 percent-plus GOP district.
Like I said before, Obama and Clinton supporters are even being polite to one another.
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