First things first. I want to begin by congratulating both the Clinton and Obama campaigns for the enthusiasm and the extraordinary, professional conduct of their campaigns. We have not had the opportunity for national campaigns to descend upon Texas with quite this intensity. Maybe in 1988. Then, and previously, the campaigns were patronizing, ill-informed about Texas, dismissive of local activists, party officials, and other Democrats who live and work here. I believe the respect both campaigns have shown state workers and voters is due to the character of the candidates. I also think it is a consequence of a bottom-up progressive movement that requires respect.
So what's going to happen? Who knows. Looking at the internals of all the public polls, it would appear to be a real toss-up. Obama dominates in the major urban areas, Clinton the rural areas, largely because of Hispanic voters. It boils down to a question of turnout. Who will turn out, and where. This much, I guess everyone knows.
What insight can I give you from decades of experience here?
If early voting is a marker, African-American turnout will exceed all expectations. That will be to Obama's advantage. Hispanic turnout will also be good, and that should be to Clinton's advantage. The question is, with all demographics turning out in larger numbers, will Hispanics' percentage of the electorate actually remain static or shrink. I think +50 year old white women are fired up for Clinton. I think the exit polls will have some surprises there.
I had a conversation with three women at the Houston Progressive Forum last Thursday. All three said they liked Obama and expected him to be the nominee. All voted for Clinton, saying they felt solidarity with her. I think this is an understandable, heartfelt vote deserving respect. And I think the exit polls are going to reveal it.
More below.
Interestingly, Clinton's experience argument doesn't seem to be working, even as her numbers improve. Look at the Belo poll to see what I mean.
This leads me to believe that the Texas Democratic electorate had already made up their minds, more or less, before the persuasion campaign even began in earnest. Some may have been looking for a rationale for their preference, but they are breaking more or less the way everyone expected them to break.
Another clue that this may be true is that Clinton's preference numbers have improved while her positive/negative ratio has actually gotten worse, from +2 to -4. This is close enough to the margin of error that it may not mean much. But it might mean that even slightly more negative feelings are not effecting, say, solidarity among older women.
There's much talk nationally about Texas' "primacaucus," and some consternation about the caucuses and how the campaigns will approach them. There's nothing all that odd about how Texas is doing this. The primary vote by Senate district is intended to balance support and protect individual preferences. The caucuses are intended to boost political participation. In this particular election the system is giving Obama a slight advantage in the delegate apportionment. But that is only because of his organizational advantage, and the coincidence that his support might be strongest in caucuses with more delegates.
I believe this does mean, though, that Clinton will have a strategy of damping discussion of the delegate results Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Whether she wins or finishes a close second, the campaign will want to focus on the popular vote, not the delegate count. This bears watching.
While we are looking at the popular vote Tuesday night, beware of El Paso, which is one hour behind the rest of Texas. Polls there close one hour later. Clinton will do well in El Paso. I don't know what plans the networks have with regard to calling Texas, but they'd better be aware of El Paso.
In any other contest, early vote would have skewed to older voters, those in the habit of voting. That would have given Clinton an advantage. I'm not certain it will be the case, this time. Younger voters may have turned out in similar numbers. So I'm not going to be certain what conclusions to draw from the early vote results. Polls seem to suggest that Obama may win it. I don't know if that will turn out to be true, and I don't know how it may influence the total vote. Most early voters and just that, voters who happened to vote early. This year many Democrats who don't have primary voting history appear to have voted early. Also, despite widespread beliefs, not that many with GOP primary history, only 2 or 3 percent, have voted in the Democratic primary.
Finally, I survived what was previously the most hard-fought primary in Texas, the 1990 race between Ann Richards and Attorney General Jim Mattox. I even managed that one. By the end of the race, all sides had come together in mutual respect. We beat the Republican in November.
I say that to make it clear that while I am Obama supporter, I have the deepest respect for those who prefer Clinton. Many of those in her Texas campaign leadership were with us when we fought for Ann in 1990. And I look forward to working with them on behalf of the eventual nominee.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 28 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
